Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.889236 1.041708 1.212360 1.417534 1.657588 1.929660 2.261602
2024-10-27 0.618973 0.811537 1.052270 1.375459 1.798411 2.333760 3.064075
2024-11-03 0.496374 0.705115 0.987441 1.397488 1.978735 2.774758 3.950899
2024-11-10 0.438396 0.664637 0.990824 1.495853 2.259784 3.375227 5.134000
2024-11-17 0.383236 0.614541 0.966909 1.543422 2.465767 3.889105 6.263022
2024-11-24 0.332495 0.560516 0.925355 1.552387 2.607010 4.316822 7.315279
2024-12-01 0.288270 0.508568 0.877137 1.539599 2.705709 4.683151 8.313167
2024-12-08 0.253279 0.466023 0.836945 1.531847 2.807693 5.063085 9.382441
2024-12-15 0.227642 0.435646 0.812565 1.546628 2.948574 5.525243 10.659572
2024-12-22 0.196912 0.391005 0.755690 1.492281 2.952147 5.735222 11.491632
2024-12-29 0.189658 0.390115 0.780010 1.595428 3.269775 6.575311 13.660754
2025-01-05 0.166749 0.354618 0.732174 1.548230 3.280974 6.816859 14.656515
2025-01-12 0.146101 0.321351 0.685377 1.498842 3.285600 7.055764 15.705633
2025-01-19 0.128389 0.291854 0.642556 1.452220 3.290602 7.298871 16.808320
2025-01-26 0.118693 0.278538 0.632352 1.475354 3.451788 7.899710 18.799781
2025-02-02 0.115947 0.280619 0.656311 1.579214 3.811299 8.991218 22.090613
2025-02-09 0.109557 0.273141 0.657377 1.629445 4.051868 9.842221 24.935742
2025-02-16 0.101228 0.259701 0.642528 1.638911 4.194674 10.480565 27.352089
2025-02-23 0.092500 0.243953 0.619862 1.625408 4.277583 10.982772 29.495375
2025-03-02 0.084992 0.230247 0.600386 1.617222 4.372867 11.528797 31.836487
2025-03-09 0.079401 0.220805 0.590495 1.632830 4.533280 12.264711 34.802353
2025-03-16 0.071066 0.202691 0.555465 1.575441 4.487273 12.447956 36.264951
2025-03-23 0.070522 0.206253 0.579102 1.684361 4.920848 13.994139 41.849558